A Perfect Storm in Cuba: Is the Island Nation on the Brink? The situation in Cuba is rapidly deteriorating, and the U.S.'s actions regarding Venezuelan oil tankers are adding fuel to the fire. Concerns are mounting about the survival of the Cuban government and its economy.
Experts are warning that a sudden disruption in Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba could trigger widespread social unrest and a mass exodus, especially after the U.S. military's capture of former President Nicolás Maduro. This has many Cubans contemplating their future. As 16-year-old Amanda Gómez poignantly put it, "We’re all thinking about leaving, from the youngest to the oldest."
Cuba has been grappling with severe economic hardships for years, including blackouts and shortages. The lack of Venezuelan oil could push the country over the edge. According to Michael Galant, a senior research associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, this situation could lead to a "collapsing economy." He believes the Trump administration's goal is to cause enough suffering to incite an uprising and regime change.
But here's where it gets controversial... Galant also suggests that the U.S. strategy is a form of besiegement, but he acknowledges that the Cuban government is experienced in handling such crises. He questions whether this approach will destabilize the regime.
From 2020 to 2024, Cuba's population decreased by 1.4 million, largely due to migration driven by the worsening crisis. Economist Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos notes that while those with means have already left, the exodus will continue because of the fuel shortage. Many Cubans are seeking ways to leave, such as Ernesto Macías, a doctor who was requesting a visa for his daughter. He hopes that Cuba will not be invaded, but he is sure that people will continue to emigrate.
Cuba's economic struggles are evident. Its gross domestic product has fallen by 15% in the last six years, with a 4% decrease in 2025 alone, as noted by President Miguel Díaz-Canel. While the economy never fully recovered after the fall of the Soviet Union, it experienced some prosperity between 2000 and 2019, fueled by tourism and exports. The COVID-19 pandemic and increased U.S. sanctions have worsened the crisis.
Cuba relies heavily on Venezuela for oil, receiving an estimated 35,000 barrels a day before the U.S. actions, along with around 5,500 barrels from Mexico and approximately 7,500 from Russia. Even with these shipments, blackouts have persisted. Jorge Duany from the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University predicts that a total suspension of oil shipments could lead to mass protests.
Andy S. Gómez, retired dean of the School of International Studies at the University of Miami, believes that the Cuban government is concerned but unlikely to fall while Raúl Castro is still alive and in control of the military. He also notes that it is unlikely that one of the three factions of Cuba's army would break with the ruling elite.
And this is the part most people miss... Gómez suggests that any government changes would likely involve a well-known figure, maintaining the status quo. He believes that most Cubans are primarily concerned with basic necessities like food, electricity, housing, and jobs.
On Friday, U.S. forces seized their fifth tanker, as part of a wider effort by Trump’s administration to control the distribution of Venezuela’s oil products globally. Experts believe any obstruction in the supply line would be a shock given the fragility of the island’s economy.
In this context, Gómez suggests that mass migration is Cuba's only card to play with the U.S. He believes that the Cuban authorities can control the situation and that the military is on high alert.
What do you think? Do you believe the U.S. actions are justified? Could the current situation lead to significant changes in Cuba? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
