The College Football Playoff rankings are about to get heated! The selection committee, an unpaid group of dedicated individuals, will face some tough choices this weekend.
BYU's loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game has left a spot open for at least two of the following teams: Alabama, Notre Dame, or Miami. But here's where it gets controversial...
Alabama, the only one of these teams to play this weekend, suffered a devastating loss to Georgia, raising questions about their place in the rankings. The CFP committee has historically penalized teams on a downward trajectory, so Alabama's recent slump could be a significant factor.
Last year, teams that were already 'in' the bracket didn't fall out after losing conference championship games. SMU, ranked 8th, dropped to 10th but remained in the field. This year, the committee might have to make a bold statement.
If Alabama, with a 10-3 record, falls out after being ranked 9th, it could spark a major controversy. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey would likely be furious if a team that reached the SEC championship game as the top seed was excluded from the 12-team CFP.
This decision could have far-reaching consequences. If the SEC championship game becomes a disincentive for teams, it could lead to the elimination of conference championship games altogether. The committee's decision on Sunday is a crucial one, and they must approach it with caution.
At the top, I predict the committee will elevate Indiana to the No. 1 spot after their impressive win over Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. The Buckeyes, despite a close loss, will likely remain at No. 2.
I also see Tulane and James Madison making the cut from the American and Sun Belt conferences, respectively. The CFP rules state that the top five FBS conference champions automatically qualify, and this year, that includes teams from outside the Power 4 conferences.
Now, the big question: What will the committee decide about Miami and Notre Dame? We've been debating the outcome of their Week 1 game for months. Should Miami's narrow win over Notre Dame three months ago be a deciding factor now? Or does it matter more that Miami's losses are considered worse than Notre Dame's?
The committee has praised Notre Dame's consistency and improved defense, but they also recently ranked Alabama ahead of the Irish based on their win over Auburn. It's clear the committee is inconsistent and unreliable in its rankings.
I believe the committee will take the easiest route and drop Alabama two spots after their loss to Georgia. This would place Alabama behind both Notre Dame and Miami, allowing these two heavily scrutinized teams to enter the 12-team field. It would also ensure the ACC has a representative in the CFP.
The committee could even rank the Hurricanes ahead of the Irish based on their Week 1 result, if they choose to. After all, they recently placed Texas ahead of Vanderbilt, a team they defeated.
The final rankings will be revealed at noon ET on Sunday, and it's anyone's guess how the committee will justify their decisions. Will they stick to their principles or make controversial choices? We'll have to wait and see!
