Powerful shifts are already here: Long Island winters are not as harsh as they used to be, and that change is part of a global pattern linked to climate change.
Meteorological winter—December through February—begins this season across the Northern Hemisphere, yet data analyzed by Climate Central show that Long Island’s winters are warming faster than the national average. Heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere since the Industrial Age have altered when and how intensely winter unfolds, the researchers explain.
Although discussions about global warming often spotlight scorching summers, droughts, wildfires, and the health toll they take, winter is warming quickly in many parts of the United States. Climate Central’s assessment, drawing on NOAA records, reveals that the coldest day has warmed by about 7°F since 1970, and fewer days and nights drop below freezing each year.
Yet there’s no cause for celebration. A warmer winter can disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, wildlife, forests, and human health. Scientists warn that even mild winters can have serious consequences when coupled with broader climate shifts.
Key takeaways from Climate Central’s findings
- Winters are warming faster than summers in much of the United States, with knock-on effects for ecosystems and health.
- Long Island’s winter temperatures have risen more than the national average, indicating region-specific impacts.
- To avoid dangerous climate tipping points, researchers emphasize the urgent need to cut fossil fuel use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions dramatically.
Ecological ripple effects
From 1970 to 2025, winter temperatures across 3,137 U.S. counties analyzed by Climate Central rose by an average of 4.07°F, based on NOAA data. In Suffolk County, winters are about 4.9°F warmer now than in 1970; in Nassau County, about 5.1°F warmer. The core reason is longer, milder autumns and an earlier arrival of spring, meaning fewer extreme cold periods over the season.
Even with warmer winters, cold snaps still occur, but they are shorter and typically not as severe as in the past. Scientists note that those cold periods, when they do appear, tend not to reach the depths seen several decades ago.
A feedback loop intensifies warming: snow and ice normally reflect sunlight (the albedo effect), cooling the surface. When snow is scarce, more solar energy is absorbed, accelerating warming and snowmelt, which further reduces albedo and warms the ground and air.
Small changes in winter—just a few degrees—can ripple through ecosystems, altering habitat for prey and predators, changing plant and insect life cycles, and shifting migration and breeding timings. Snow scarcity also reduces spring groundwater recharge and can escalate wildfire risk as the land dries earlier.
Warmer winters also favor invasive species and disease vectors, including insects like the southern pine beetle and ticks or mosquitoes that carry illnesses. Plant leaf-out, insect emergence, and wildlife migrations, all finely tuned over millions of years, can fall out of sync, threatening food availability when animals need it most.
What the scientific majority agrees on
There is near-universal scientific consensus that the planet’s atmosphere has been warming since the mid-19th century, with the pace accelerating due to human activity—specifically greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in its 2023 assessment that human-caused warming is a clear threat to well-being and planetary health.
Last year set new warmth records, and atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ and methane reached historic highs. Global temperatures have risen about 1.46°C (2.63°F) above pre-industrial levels, approaching the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target highlighted in international climate goals. Beyond that threshold, experts warn that tipping points could be crossed, including potential Greenland ice melt, permafrost thaw, and Amazon rainforest stress.
Even if emissions stopped abruptly, warming would continue for some time due to a lag between emissions and full climatic response. Some scientists estimate that roughly 2°C of warming may be locked in, depending on future emissions trajectories.
Policy and politics complicate the path forward. Global climate policy assessments rate U.S. actions as falling short of the Paris Agreement goals, and domestic regulatory rollbacks have sparked debates about their impact on climate progress. At the same time, some regional policies appear to slow progress toward clean energy and efficiency targets, raising concerns about the long-term implications for climate health.
Experts urge urgent action
Despite political hurdles and mixed policy signals, climate scientists emphasize that reducing heat-trapping emissions must begin now to avoid surpassing critical warming thresholds. The message is clear: acknowledge the reality, act decisively, and implement rapid, sustained changes to cut emissions and adapt to a warming world.
— By Tracy Tullis
